Freitag, 16. Dezember 2011
Nuclear energy has emerged over the past years as the energy source of the future which nations throughout the world, including the developing sector, are opting for. Since 2003 in particular, following the second Iraq war, concerns about instability in the world’s leading oil producing region fuelled the search for alternative energy sources. A "nuclear renaissance „was on the agenda, and, although the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami which created the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 stimulated rethinking the nuclear option—especially in Germany, which has since adopted a non-nuclear policy—this did not alter the overall trend. In the Arab world, one after another country has announced it is "going nuclear, „and Saudi Arabia is leading the move with the most ambitious program yet contemplated. On May 31 of this year, Abdul Ghani bin Melaibari, a leading Saudi scientific official, announced the Kingdom would build 16 nuclear reactors over the next two decades. Speaking at the conclusion of the Gulf Environment Forum in Jeddah, he said the total cost of the program would exceed $100 billion(with each reactor costing $7 billion) and could reach $300 billion. "After 10 years, „he announced, "we will have the first two reactors. After that, every year we will establish two, until we have 16 of them by2030.” They are to cover 20% of Saudi Arabia’s energy needs, thus alleviating the need to consume oil to meet domestic demands. Currently 20% of its oil is consumed internally. Desalination is another area which requires massive energy input, and Saudi Arabia will have to spend an estimated $50 billion on water projects over the next 10 years, according to the Saline Water Conversion Corporation (1).Given Saudi Arabia’s role as the world’s leading oil producer, the cost factor is not prohibitive, and plans are to fund the effort directly without recourse to loans. The problem lies elsewhere, in the lack of infrastructure for such a program: according to former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, at least a decade is needed to train the scientific cadres, conduct feasibility studies, and select sites. Recognizing this requirement, the Saudis have been investing heavily in scientific education more broadly and setting up new institutions to guide the process. Thus, on September23, 2009 the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology(KAUST) opened, with nine research centers devoted to alternative energy, desalination, nanotechnology, and so on. The university, which is the first co-education alone, is the brainchild of King Abdullah in Abdul Aziz Al Saud, who saw it as a modernizing tool. Over 300 students are enrolled, a figure expected to climb to2, 000 in ten years. Another initiative linked to the nuclear program is KACARE, the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, whose creation was announced in a royal decree on April 17, 2010. The science city will promote nuclear energy application to agriculture, desalination, mining, and medicine, as well as training cadres and organizing research projects. KACARE, which will represent Saudi Arabia at the IAEA, is to will draw up a national atomic energy development policy.
A Regional Perspective
The Saudi program was not born as a national initiative but as part of a regional effort. It first surfaced in December 2006at a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh, in the meeting’s final communiqué: "The (leaders) commissioned study by members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to set up a common programme in the area of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, according to international standards and systems.” The member states, it declared, "have a right to possess nuclear energy technology for peaceful purposes. „Two years later, in response to the GCC resolutions, an International Symposium on the peaceful use of atomic energy was organized in Jeddah, with the participation of energy agencies from 20 nations and the IAEA. In an interview to Arab News on November 1, 2008, Mohammed bin Subian Al-Johani, chairman of the KAU’s department of nuclear engineering, the co-sponsor with the Higher Education Ministry of the event, stressed the importance of the conference as "the first of its kind in the Arab Gulf region and milestone in the technological advancement of this country.” He said the aims of the symposium were inform the GCC scientific community of "the potential sand capabilities of nuclear science and technology,” and to "draw the attention of international nuclear organizations to the potential market in the region. „Among the themes discussed were development of nuclear power, research reactors, strategic planning for the introduction of the technology to the region, etc. When asked about the problem of qualified scientific cadre, he said that Saudi institutions had been turning out nuclear engineers, with both bachelor and master programs at the KAU, for instance. Sparking interest among international partners has been no problem, since the sheer dimensions of the Saudi program and potential among other GCC states are immense. Russian president Putin made his first visit to Saudi Arabia in February2007, and offered cooperation in the field, and French president Nicolas Sarkozy echoed him in January 2008. France has since signed an agreement. His ham Yamani, chairman of KACARE, and French Minister of Industry and Energy Eric Besson signed a wide-ranging agreement on February 22, 2011, for cooperation in the nuclear field, for electricity production, desalination, human resources development, and applications to agriculture, medicine, industry, biology, and archaeology. „All our industrial groups are at your disposal in the nuclear and renewable energy industries,” Bison told his host. Although the initial probes into nuclear technology came from the GCC as group, it was the UAE and Saudi Arabia who made the first national policy commitments and signed separately with foreign partners to access the technology and know-how. The UAE and France agreed on a framework in January 2008and the UAE did the same with the US in April. In July of this year, the news was leaked that the US might be approaching major cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia. An MOU signed between the two in May 2008 pledged US assistance in developing "civilian nuclear energy for use in medicine, industry, and power generation” and "human and infrastructure resources” within the framework of the IAEA. Now, reports say Washington wants to pursue talks with Riyadh with an eye towards reaching a so-called "123agreement” giving the Saudis access to US technologies, as well as materials for nuclear program, and know-how.
The Iranian Factor
Although the reasons why the GCC states among others want to go nuclear are obvious, and economically rational – fossil fuels will not last forever, and every nation has a right to advanced technologies, including nuclear – there has been growing speculation that geopolitical concerns may also play a role. A major study published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in 2008, entitled „Nuclear Programmed in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran,” put the point bluntly: "If Tehran’s nuclear programmers unchecked,” it wrote, "there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt regional cascade of proliferation among Iran’s neighbors” and it named Saudi Arabia first. Further on the study states that Saudi Arabia is interested in atomic energy more for political and security reasons that out of economic considerations: „Saudi Arabia wishes to signal to Iran that its regional and nuclear ambitions will not go unopposed. Nuclear-power projects would allow the kingdom to develop nuclear infrastructure and scientific expertise under NPT rules. Although not by itself a gateway to nuclear weapons, this could be a long-term security hedge, intended as a declaratory response to Iran’s latent military nuclear capabilities….”It concludes that if Iran obtained military capabilities, Saudi Arabia "may be forced… to meet the perceived challenge.”(2)Although Saudi Arabia has no such military capability, certain statements by Saudi officials have raised eyebrows in the West. For example, Prince Turkic al-Faisalreportedly told NATO officials in London in June that "If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, that will be unacceptable to us and we will have to follow suit.”(3)Safeguards against such a nuclear arms race exist. One lies in solving the enrichment issue. In 2007 the Saudis proposed an IAEA-supervised, regional joint enrichment consortium to produce fuel in neutral country and provide it to all regional users. Iran had made a similar proposal, including Iraq and itself, and several proposals involving Turkey and Russia were also in discussion. Disagreement revolved around the location of enrichment facilities, as Iran claimed its right to domestic production. At the end of December 2007, the US issued its National Intelligence Estimate conclusion that Iran did not have a military program, but that has not ended the matter. Until a peaceful solution is reached, guaranteeing access to nuclear fuel and enrichment under NPT regulations, geopolitical fantasies may persist. The more urgent task would be to move ahead with regional nuclear development, on a truly cooperative basis.
Muriel Mirak-Weißbach
Photo: gazdasági
